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Confidence Levels

Epistemic status (from gwern)

  1. certain
  2. highly likely
  3. likely
  4. possible (my preference over Kesselman's Chances a Little Better [or Less])
  5. unlikely
  6. highly unlikely
  7. remote
  8. impossible

Other articles to add

Add in:

  • http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/protecting-acro.html Discounting
  • subjectivism: Morality should formalise our intuitions, make consistent, ensure our decisions get us the world state we want
  • Revenge: is it justified, when? Why?
  • Work: is it moral, should we be trying to achieve 100% employment, etc.
  • importance of compounding, not circular work: Essentially, want to write articles using books read, and read to write those articles, reading without writing is circular not railroad (also: importance of reading?)
  • there are timeless truths, when it comes to human flurishing. eg. stoicism, has been rewritten throughout the ages - see 'Flow' discussion of needing to reword for each generation, see Russel Brand and the many many books where I left notes of 'stoic' (Hayek also says it is necessary to restate the principles of liberty each generation as the old formulas become overused)
  • Minimalism views, clustering not raw item count, is 100 nails, vs a box of nails vs a tool box. Count based on cognitive load? Etc
  • Importance of moral uncertainty when making decisions?
  • Seems to be some natural concept of private property, babies understand 'mine' very quickly (two?), our daughter understands very clearly which object is hers, mine, my partner's, etc.
  • why socialism doesn't work: one example of the scale of the issue faced by the calculation problem: porn. There are so many niches in porn these days, would the government ever be able to provide such variety?
  • immigration, free borders, etc.

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Last modified 2019-05-16 Thu 10:20. Contact max@maxjmartin.com